Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 1-1
São Paulo vs LDU Loja analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
1.89
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.7%
5-1
1.1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.8%
4-1
2.9%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.2%
2-0
12.4%
3-1
6.1%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.7%
1-0
13.1%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.4%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.4%
21.5%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.5%
14.7%
Win probability
0.78
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
4%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.3%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Oct. 2012 |
FLA
1 - 0
SAO
27%
26%
47%
|
86 | 78 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Oct. 2012 |
SAO
2 - 0
ATL
67%
20%
13%
|
86 | 73 | 13 | 0 |
| 14 Oct. 2012 |
SAO
2 - 0
FFL
64%
21%
15%
|
86 | 75 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2012 |
VAS
0 - 2
SAO
44%
25%
31%
|
85 | 84 | 1 | +1 |
| 06 Oct. 2012 |
SAO
3 - 0
PAL
54%
24%
22%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
LDU Loja
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Oct. 2012 |
LIG
2 - 2
LOJ
62%
22%
16%
|
72 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Oct. 2012 |
CUE
2 - 0
LOJ
44%
28%
28%
|
73 | 73 | 0 | -1 |
| 04 Oct. 2012 |
LOJ
0 - 1
BSC
41%
28%
32%
|
73 | 79 | 6 | 0 |
| 30 Sep. 2012 |
TEC
3 - 0
LOJ
39%
27%
34%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | -1 |
| 27 Sep. 2012 |
LOJ
1 - 1
SAO
29%
27%
44%
|
74 | 85 | 11 | 0 |