São Paulo vs Comercial analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
88.4%
Win probability
2.95
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.2%
8-0
0.5%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.6%
7-0
1.4%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.6%
6-0
3.3%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
3.9%
5-0
6.7%
6-1
1.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
8%
4-0
11.3%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
14.1%
3-0
15.3%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
20.1%
2-0
15.6%
3-1
5.8%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.1%
4-3
0.1%
+1
17.7%
8.8%
Draw
0-0
3.6%
1-1
4%
2-2
1.1%
3-3
0.1%
0
8.8%
2.7%
Win probability
0.38
Expected goals
0-1
1.4%
1-2
0.8%
2-3
0.1%
3-4
0%
-1
2.3%
0-2
0.3%
1-3
0.1%
2-4
0%
-2
0.4%
0-3
0%
-3
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+5%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Paulo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Feb. 2012 |
PPE
1 - 3
SAO
29%
25%
46%
|
84 | 70 | 14 | 0 |
| 02 Feb. 2012 |
SAO
1 - 1
GUA
72%
18%
10%
|
84 | 64 | 20 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2012 |
SAO
2 - 1
SAO
70%
19%
11%
|
84 | 68 | 16 | 0 |
| 25 Jan. 2012 |
OES
2 - 3
SAO
9%
19%
72%
|
84 | 48 | 36 | 0 |
| 22 Jan. 2012 |
SAO
4 - 0
BOT
78%
16%
6%
|
83 | 58 | 25 | +1 |
Matches
Comercial
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 Feb. 2012 |
COM
1 - 3
MOG
33%
24%
43%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | 0 |
| 01 Feb. 2012 |
COM
2 - 1
CAT
42%
25%
33%
|
54 | 56 | 2 | 0 |
| 28 Jan. 2012 |
BOT
1 - 2
COM
64%
20%
17%
|
53 | 58 | 5 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2012 |
PAU
3 - 0
COM
63%
20%
17%
|
54 | 60 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Jan. 2012 |
COM
3 - 4
LIN
35%
25%
40%
|
54 | 58 | 4 | 0 |