São João Ver vs Lusitania FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.2%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.3%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
<0%
+3
1.8%
2-0
4.3%
3-1
1.8%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
6.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
5.8%
3-2
1.2%
4-3
0.1%
+1
16.6%
27.8%
Draw
0-0
10.5%
1-1
12.8%
2-2
3.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
27.8%
47%
Win probability
1.35
Expected goals
0-1
14.1%
1-2
8.6%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
3.9%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0%
-2
14.1%
0-3
4.3%
1-4
1.3%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
5.8%
0-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0%
-4
1.8%
0-5
0.4%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.5%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
8º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
5
3º
10º
8º
6
3º
9º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
15 | 36 |
1º
|
49.5% | |
|
2º
|
14 | 35 |
2º
|
34.5% | |
|
3º
|
10 | 28 |
3º
|
25% | |
|
|
6º
|
6 | 27 |
4º
|
20% | |
|
5º
|
8 | 26 |
5º
|
16.5% | |
|
4º
|
10 | 24 |
6º
|
16% | |
|
9º
|
5 | 23 |
7º
|
16% | |
|
|
8º
|
5 | 19 |
8º
|
21% | |
|
10º
|
5 | 16 |
9º
|
25.5% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 15 |
10º
|
35.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion play-offs
|
7% | 48.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
93% | 51.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São João Ver
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
SAO
2 - 1
UNI
61%
21%
19%
|
44 | 23 | 21 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
SCP
3 - 2
SAO
55%
23%
22%
|
44 | 47 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2024 |
RIO
1 - 2
SAO
22%
25%
54%
|
44 | 32 | 12 | 0 |
| 07 Jul. 2024 |
ARO
2 - 3
SAO
86%
11%
3%
|
44 | 79 | 35 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
AMA
2 - 1
SAO
62%
23%
15%
|
44 | 51 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Lusitania FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
LUS
1 - 1
BOA
12%
17%
72%
|
52 | 73 | 21 | 0 |
| 24 Jul. 2024 |
LUS
0 - 1
BMA
72%
17%
11%
|
52 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 20 Jul. 2024 |
UNI
0 - 4
LUS
13%
19%
68%
|
52 | 23 | 29 | 0 |
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
TON
0 - 1
LUS
71%
18%
11%
|
52 | 66 | 14 | 0 |
| 10 Jul. 2024 |
LUS
2 - 2
LEX
28%
24%
47%
|
52 | 60 | 8 | 0 |