Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 2-2
São Caetano vs U. Católica analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
66.4%
Win probability
2.28
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4.3%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
7.5%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.8%
2-0
9.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
8.7%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.7%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.9%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
15%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
4.2%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
9.9%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.7%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+53%
+3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
São Caetano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Apr. 2002 |
UCO
1 - 1
SAO
42%
24%
34%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2002 |
SAO
0 - 1
CCP
57%
22%
21%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | -1 |
| 28 Mar. 2002 |
ALI
0 - 3
SAO
22%
23%
55%
|
82 | 63 | 19 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 2002 |
SAO
3 - 0
COB
72%
17%
11%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | +1 |
| 05 Mar. 2002 |
CCP
1 - 3
SAO
43%
25%
32%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
U. Católica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Apr. 2002 |
UNI
0 - 2
UCO
34%
26%
40%
|
76 | 68 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2002 |
UCO
1 - 1
SAO
42%
24%
34%
|
75 | 81 | 6 | +1 |
| 21 Apr. 2002 |
UCO
7 - 0
CSL
86%
10%
4%
|
75 | 54 | 21 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2002 |
UCH
1 - 1
UCO
46%
25%
29%
|
75 | 75 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2002 |
UCO
3 - 1
ONC
43%
24%
33%
|
74 | 76 | 2 | +1 |