Copa Libertadores Last 16
Global 6-6
Santos FC vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
65%
Win probability
2.18
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.6%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.8%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.5%
4-0
4%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.1%
3-0
7.4%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
12.3%
2-0
10.2%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.6%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.5%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
23.4%
19.4%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
9%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
19.4%
15.6%
Win probability
0.97
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
10.4%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.4%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.1%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+28%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santos FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04 May. 2003 |
CRI
1 - 3
SAN
29%
26%
45%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2003 |
SAN
4 - 0
FOR
77%
15%
8%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 2003 |
NAC
4 - 4
SAN
42%
26%
31%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 2003 |
FLA
0 - 2
SAN
39%
26%
35%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2003 |
SAN
1 - 1
NAC
81%
13%
6%
|
85 | 77 | 8 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2003 |
NAC
2 - 0
JUV
80%
14%
6%
|
82 | 60 | 22 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2003 |
BVS
0 - 3
NAC
30%
26%
44%
|
82 | 73 | 9 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2003 |
NAC
4 - 4
SAN
42%
26%
31%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 20 Apr. 2003 |
FEN
0 - 3
NAC
45%
22%
33%
|
82 | 76 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 2003 |
UNI
2 - 2
NAC
12%
20%
68%
|
82 | 68 | 14 | 0 |