Intercontinental Final
Global 7-6
Santos FC vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.4%
Win probability
2.23
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
2.7%
5-1
1.7%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.9%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.2%
2-0
6.6%
3-1
6.9%
4-2
2.7%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.8%
1-0
6%
2-1
9.3%
3-2
4.8%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.5%
20.2%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
8.3%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.2%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
0.1%
0
20.1%
23.5%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.8%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
13.4%
0-2
2.6%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-1%
-3%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santos FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov. 1963 |
SAN
4 - 2
ACM
55%
21%
25%
|
82 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
| 16 Oct. 1963 |
ACM
4 - 2
SAN
81%
12%
8%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1963 |
BOC
1 - 2
SAN
60%
20%
20%
|
82 | 80 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1963 |
SAN
3 - 2
BOC
75%
14%
10%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 28 Aug. 1963 |
BOT
0 - 4
SAN
53%
21%
26%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nov. 1963 |
SAN
4 - 2
ACM
55%
21%
25%
|
89 | 82 | 7 | 0 |
| 03 Nov. 1963 |
INT
0 - 2
ACM
46%
23%
31%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 1963 |
ACM
3 - 0
MOD
84%
10%
5%
|
89 | 67 | 22 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 1963 |
ACM
3 - 1
CAT
82%
11%
7%
|
89 | 71 | 18 | 0 |
| 20 Oct. 1963 |
BOL
2 - 2
ACM
39%
24%
38%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |