Copa Libertadores Semi-finals
Global 3-5
Santos FC vs Independiente analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
63.7%
Win probability
2.27
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
1.7%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.6%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
1.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.2%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.2%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.1%
2-0
8.9%
3-1
7.4%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.1%
4-3
0.8%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
8.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
19.1%
17.1%
Win probability
1.1
Expected goals
0-1
3.8%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.9%
0-2
2.1%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.4%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-7%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santos FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Nov. 1963 |
SAN
1 - 0
ACM
56%
20%
24%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 1963 |
SAN
4 - 2
ACM
55%
21%
25%
|
81 | 89 | 8 | +1 |
| 16 Oct. 1963 |
ACM
4 - 2
SAN
81%
12%
8%
|
82 | 88 | 6 | -1 |
| 11 Sep. 1963 |
BOC
1 - 2
SAN
60%
20%
20%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 1963 |
SAN
3 - 2
BOC
75%
14%
10%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Independiente
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jul. 1964 |
IND
4 - 0
NOB
75%
16%
9%
|
81 | 61 | 20 | 0 |
| 28 Jun. 1964 |
FER
1 - 1
IND
26%
26%
48%
|
82 | 66 | 16 | -1 |
| 21 Jun. 1964 |
IND
0 - 0
HUR
63%
21%
17%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 14 Jun. 1964 |
ARG
3 - 0
IND
32%
25%
43%
|
82 | 67 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Jun. 1964 |
IND
5 - 1
MIL
64%
19%
17%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |