Santacruzense vs Penapolense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
11.6%
Win probability
0.72
Expected goals
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.4%
4-1
0.1%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1.5%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.1%
5-3
<0%
+2
2.5%
1-0
4.3%
2-1
3.2%
3-2
0.8%
4-3
0.1%
+1
8.4%
19%
Draw
0-0
6%
1-1
9%
2-2
3.4%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
19%
69.5%
Win probability
2.1
Expected goals
0-1
12.5%
1-2
9.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
13.2%
1-3
6.6%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.1%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.2%
1-4
3.5%
2-5
0.5%
3-6
0%
-3
13.3%
0-4
4.8%
1-5
1.5%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
6.5%
0-5
2%
1-6
0.5%
2-7
0.1%
-5
2.6%
0-6
0.7%
1-7
0.2%
2-8
0%
-6
0.9%
0-7
0.2%
1-8
0%
-7
0.3%
0-8
0.1%
-8
0.1%
0-9
0%
-9
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santacruzense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2023 |
TUP
3 - 0
SAN
61%
21%
18%
|
20 | 27 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 Apr. 2023 |
SAN
0 - 0
TAN
49%
23%
28%
|
20 | 17 | 3 | 0 |
| 25 Jun. 2022 |
SAN
1 - 3
ASS
43%
26%
31%
|
21 | 22 | 1 | -1 |
| 19 Jun. 2022 |
AAI
3 - 0
SAN
51%
23%
25%
|
22 | 31 | 9 | -1 |
| 11 Jun. 2022 |
GRE
1 - 0
SAN
73%
17%
10%
|
22 | 36 | 14 | 0 |
Matches
Penapolense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Apr. 2023 |
PEN
2 - 1
FER
70%
18%
12%
|
37 | 24 | 13 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 2023 |
VOC
2 - 1
PEN
25%
24%
51%
|
38 | 32 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Aug. 2022 |
ITA
1 - 0
PEN
42%
26%
32%
|
39 | 41 | 2 | -1 |
| 14 Aug. 2022 |
PEN
2 - 2
ITA
39%
26%
35%
|
38 | 41 | 3 | +1 |
| 06 Aug. 2022 |
PEN
1 - 0
PAU
41%
27%
32%
|
37 | 41 | 4 | +1 |