Copa do Brasil 1/64
Global 4-1
Santa Cruz vs Lagarto analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82%
Win probability
2.53
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.1%
5-0
4.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.2%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.7%
3-0
13.4%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
17.9%
2-0
15.8%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.2%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
1.5%
4-3
0.2%
+1
21.7%
12.9%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
1.8%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
12.9%
5%
Win probability
0.48
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1.4%
2-3
0.3%
3-4
0%
-1
4.1%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2014 |
SAN
1 - 1
PAR
40%
27%
33%
|
62 | 67 | 5 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2014 |
POR
1 - 1
SAN
69%
20%
11%
|
63 | 75 | 12 | -1 |
| 19 Apr. 2014 |
SAN
1 - 1
ABC
53%
25%
22%
|
63 | 60 | 3 | 0 |
| 13 Apr. 2014 |
SPO
1 - 0
SAN
55%
24%
22%
|
63 | 66 | 3 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2014 |
LAG
0 - 1
SAN
11%
19%
70%
|
63 | 31 | 32 | 0 |
Matches
Lagarto
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 May. 2014 |
LAG
3 - 0
OSE
73%
18%
10%
|
32 | 11 | 21 | 0 |
| 04 May. 2014 |
EST
2 - 1
LAG
56%
22%
22%
|
33 | 38 | 5 | -1 |
| 01 May. 2014 |
LAG
1 - 0
ITA
44%
25%
31%
|
32 | 34 | 2 | +1 |
| 27 Apr. 2014 |
SER
3 - 3
LAG
76%
16%
8%
|
32 | 49 | 17 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 2014 |
LAG
1 - 1
CON
23%
24%
53%
|
31 | 44 | 13 | +1 |