Santa Cruz vs Araripina FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
68.2%
Win probability
2.12
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.6%
4-0
4.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.4%
3-0
8.7%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
13%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.7%
1-0
11.6%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.7%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.3%
19.1%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
9.1%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
19.1%
12.6%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
4.3%
1-2
3.6%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
9%
0-2
1.7%
1-3
0.9%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.8%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.7%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Santa Cruz
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Mar. 2012 |
BEL
0 - 3
SAN
27%
25%
48%
|
49 | 39 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
CEN
1 - 2
SAN
40%
26%
34%
|
48 | 46 | 2 | +1 |
| 15 Mar. 2012 |
SAN
2 - 3
PEN
60%
22%
18%
|
49 | 45 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
SAN
2 - 0
SAL
40%
26%
35%
|
48 | 53 | 5 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
PEN
1 - 2
SAN
42%
26%
33%
|
47 | 46 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Araripina FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Mar. 2012 |
ARA
1 - 3
PET
46%
24%
29%
|
43 | 43 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 Mar. 2012 |
ARA
1 - 1
CEN
40%
25%
35%
|
42 | 46 | 4 | +1 |
| 08 Mar. 2012 |
SPO
2 - 1
ARA
87%
10%
3%
|
43 | 70 | 27 | -1 |
| 03 Mar. 2012 |
NAU
3 - 0
ARA
87%
10%
4%
|
43 | 67 | 24 | 0 |
| 01 Mar. 2012 |
ARA
4 - 1
POR
44%
24%
32%
|
42 | 42 | 0 | +1 |