San Marcos Arica vs Univ. Concepción analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.1%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
10%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.3%
1-0
12.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.7%
24.7%
Draw
0-0
7.5%
1-1
11.7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.7%
22.1%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
7.2%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.5%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.8%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.6%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
34
4º
13º
8º
33
6º
16º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
59 | 69 |
1º
|
99.5% | |
|
3º
|
43 | 54 |
2º
|
53.5% | |
|
4º
|
43 | 53 |
3º
|
47% | |
|
2º
|
44 | 51 |
4º
|
59% | |
|
7º
|
35 | 42 |
5º
|
18.5% | |
|
8º
|
35 | 42 |
6º
|
17.5% | |
|
5º
|
37 | 41 |
7º
|
18% | |
|
|
9º
|
34 | 41 |
8º
|
17.5% | |
|
6º
|
36 | 40 |
9º
|
14.5% | |
|
12º
|
30 | 38 |
10º
|
16.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
33 | 37 |
11º
|
16.5% | |
|
11º
|
31 | 36 |
12º
|
15% | |
|
13º
|
30 | 34 |
13º
|
28.5% | |
|
15º
|
18 | 34 |
14º
|
34% | |
|
14º
|
26 | 30 |
15º
|
75% | |
|
16º
|
18 | 22 |
16º
|
100% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Next round
|
57.5% | 13% |
|
Mid-table
|
42.5% | 87% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
San Marcos Arica
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Jul. 2024 |
DEP
0 - 0
SAN
33%
27%
40%
|
61 | 56 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Jun. 2024 |
COB
0 - 0
SAN
54%
23%
24%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | +1 |
| 23 Jun. 2024 |
SAN
0 - 1
COB
36%
25%
39%
|
61 | 66 | 5 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
SEP
0 - 4
SAN
5%
11%
84%
|
61 | 7 | 54 | 0 |
| 04 Jun. 2024 |
USF
0 - 2
SAN
22%
26%
52%
|
61 | 50 | 11 | 0 |
Matches
Univ. Concepción
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
UCO
1 - 0
SAN
40%
27%
33%
|
56 | 57 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Jul. 2024 |
UCO
0 - 0
DLI
63%
21%
16%
|
56 | 49 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Jun. 2024 |
DLI
1 - 0
UCO
23%
23%
54%
|
57 | 48 | 9 | -1 |
| 15 Jun. 2024 |
CDV
0 - 3
UCO
9%
16%
75%
|
57 | 7 | 50 | 0 |
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
UCO
1 - 1
SWA
30%
27%
44%
|
56 | 64 | 8 | +1 |