Conmebol Sudamericana Semi-finals
Global 1-1
San Lorenzo vs Chapecoense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.9%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.5%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3.9%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.3%
3-0
8%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11.7%
2-0
12.3%
3-1
6.3%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
20%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.1%
20.8%
Draw
0-0
6.4%
1-1
9.9%
2-2
3.8%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
20.8%
14.3%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
5%
1-2
3.9%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
10.1%
0-2
2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.2%
0-3
0.5%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
San Lorenzo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Oct. 2016 |
NOB
2 - 2
SLO
33%
28%
39%
|
84 | 79 | 5 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2016 |
PAL
1 - 0
SLO
34%
27%
39%
|
84 | 76 | 8 | 0 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
SLO
1 - 2
EST
52%
26%
22%
|
84 | 84 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2016 |
SLO
2 - 0
PAL
64%
21%
15%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
ARS
1 - 3
SLO
33%
28%
40%
|
84 | 75 | 9 | +1 |
Matches
Chapecoense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Oct. 2016 |
COR
1 - 1
CHA
62%
23%
15%
|
77 | 86 | 9 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2016 |
CHA
3 - 0
JUN
46%
27%
28%
|
76 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
| 23 Oct. 2016 |
CHA
0 - 1
SAN
29%
26%
45%
|
77 | 85 | 8 | -1 |
| 20 Oct. 2016 |
JUN
1 - 0
CHA
48%
26%
26%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -1 |
| 16 Oct. 2016 |
CRZ
0 - 0
CHA
61%
22%
17%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | +1 |