Conmebol Sudamericana Last 16
Global 2-2
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43.6%
Win probability
1.38
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.4%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.7%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.3%
2-0
8.1%
3-1
4%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.5%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
29.5%
Win probability
1.08
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
18.1%
0-2
5%
1-3
2.5%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
8%
0-3
1.8%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.6%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
San Lorenzo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
SLO
1 - 0
VEL
53%
25%
22%
|
83 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 2004 |
SLO
0 - 0
QUI
70%
19%
11%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2004 |
IND
2 - 2
SLO
34%
27%
39%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2004 |
SLO
3 - 0
GLP
61%
23%
16%
|
83 | 75 | 8 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2004 |
BOC
3 - 0
SLO
52%
25%
23%
|
83 | 85 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Boca Juniors
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 2004 |
BOC
2 - 1
GLP
65%
21%
14%
|
85 | 75 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Sep. 2004 |
BOC
1 - 1
CIE
55%
24%
22%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 29 Aug. 2004 |
BOC
2 - 1
RAC
58%
23%
19%
|
85 | 80 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2004 |
OLI
0 - 2
BOC
25%
26%
49%
|
85 | 72 | 13 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2004 |
BOC
3 - 0
SLO
52%
25%
23%
|
85 | 83 | 2 | 0 |