Conmebol Sudamericana Final
Global 4-0
San Lorenzo vs At. Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
62.4%
Win probability
1.94
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.4%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
3.5%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.9%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
11%
2-0
11.4%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.2%
1-0
11.7%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
2.8%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
21.4%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
10.2%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.4%
16.2%
Win probability
0.87
Expected goals
0-1
5.3%
1-2
4.4%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
11.1%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.3%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
3.9%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0%
-3
1%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
+6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
San Lorenzo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 2002 |
SLO
0 - 3
IND
60%
22%
19%
|
82 | 77 | 5 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2002 |
NAC
0 - 4
SLO
43%
27%
30%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 Nov. 2002 |
TAL
1 - 1
SLO
27%
26%
47%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 17 Nov. 2002 |
SLO
1 - 2
ARS
77%
15%
8%
|
81 | 65 | 16 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 2002 |
SLO
4 - 2
BOL
67%
19%
13%
|
81 | 71 | 10 | 0 |
Matches
At. Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Dec. 2002 |
AME
2 - 1
NAC
53%
26%
22%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 04 Dec. 2002 |
NAC
0 - 0
AME
48%
27%
25%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2002 |
UNI
2 - 0
NAC
40%
26%
35%
|
80 | 72 | 8 | -1 |
| 27 Nov. 2002 |
NAC
0 - 4
SLO
43%
27%
30%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Nov. 2002 |
NAC
1 - 1
PAS
64%
20%
16%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |