Tercera Playoffs Semi-finals
Global 6-3
San Fernando CD vs Loja analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
69.3%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.9%
5-0
2.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
+5
2.7%
4-0
4.8%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
6.6%
3-0
9.1%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
13.3%
2-0
12.8%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
21.1%
1-0
12.1%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.5%
18.9%
Draw
0-0
5.7%
1-1
9%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
18.9%
11.8%
Win probability
0.74
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
0.9%
3-4
0.1%
-1
8.5%
0-2
1.6%
1-3
0.8%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
2.6%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
San Fernando CD
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
LOJ
3 - 2
SAN
49%
26%
25%
|
39 | 35 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2011 |
SAN
3 - 1
JER
70%
18%
12%
|
38 | 33 | 5 | +1 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
JER
0 - 1
SAN
46%
27%
27%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | +1 |
| 15 May. 2011 |
SAN
2 - 0
AYA
74%
16%
10%
|
37 | 26 | 11 | 0 |
| 07 May. 2011 |
CRD
1 - 2
SAN
39%
27%
34%
|
36 | 33 | 3 | +1 |
Matches
Loja
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
LOJ
3 - 2
SAN
49%
26%
25%
|
35 | 39 | 4 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2011 |
LOJ
1 - 0
MAR
47%
26%
28%
|
34 | 38 | 4 | +1 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
MAR
0 - 0
LOJ
74%
16%
9%
|
33 | 39 | 6 | +1 |
| 15 May. 2011 |
LOJ
1 - 0
HUE
60%
22%
18%
|
33 | 27 | 6 | 0 |
| 08 May. 2011 |
CAR
1 - 2
LOJ
32%
27%
41%
|
33 | 21 | 12 | 0 |