Samoa vs Tonga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
76.8%
Win probability
2.43
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.5%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1.6%
5-0
3.3%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
4.2%
4-0
6.7%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
9.1%
3-0
11%
4-1
4.3%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
16.1%
2-0
13.6%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.3%
1-0
11.2%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
15.2%
Draw
0-0
4.6%
1-1
7.2%
2-2
2.9%
3-3
0.5%
4-4
<0%
0
15.2%
8%
Win probability
0.65
Expected goals
0-1
3%
1-2
2.3%
2-3
0.6%
3-4
0.1%
-1
6%
0-2
1%
1-3
0.5%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1.6%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.3%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-79%
-26%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 2011 |
COK
2 - 3
SAM
39%
24%
36%
|
30 | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2011 |
TUV
3 - 0
SAM
50%
23%
28%
|
31 | 33 | 2 | -1 |
| 18 Aug. 2011 |
FIJ
5 - 1
SAM
76%
16%
8%
|
31 | 54 | 23 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2011 |
FIJ
3 - 0
SAM
75%
16%
9%
|
32 | 54 | 22 | -1 |
| 04 Sep. 2007 |
SAM
0 - 3
SOL
15%
21%
65%
|
34 | 47 | 13 | -2 |
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Nov. 2011 |
ASA
2 - 1
TON
2%
11%
86%
|
19 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| 13 Jun. 2009 |
TON
1 - 2
COK
34%
24%
41%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 2009 |
TON
1 - 1
COK
33%
24%
43%
|
19 | 27 | 8 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 2007 |
TON
1 - 4
VAN
7%
17%
76%
|
20 | 40 | 20 | -1 |
| 02 Sep. 2007 |
TON
4 - 0
ASA
94%
5%
1%
|
20 | 5 | 15 | 0 |