Samoa vs Tonga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
80.4%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.8%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
4.1%
6-1
1.1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.3%
4-0
7.8%
5-1
2.5%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
10.6%
3-0
11.9%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
17.4%
2-0
13.7%
3-1
7.2%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
8.3%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.2%
13.3%
Draw
0-0
4%
1-1
6.3%
2-2
2.5%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
13.3%
6.3%
Win probability
0.6
Expected goals
0-1
2.4%
1-2
1.9%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
-1
4.9%
0-2
0.7%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
-2
1.2%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-66%
-14%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2007 |
ASA
0 - 7
SAM
2%
11%
88%
|
33 | 5 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2007 |
VAN
4 - 0
SAM
62%
20%
17%
|
34 | 41 | 7 | -1 |
| 19 May. 2004 |
SAM
1 - 4
PNG
52%
23%
25%
|
36 | 34 | 2 | -2 |
| 17 May. 2004 |
SAM
0 - 4
FIJ
9%
18%
74%
|
37 | 55 | 18 | -1 |
| 15 May. 2004 |
SAM
0 - 3
VAN
52%
23%
25%
|
38 | 36 | 2 | -1 |
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2007 |
SOL
4 - 0
TON
90%
8%
2%
|
20 | 46 | 26 | 0 |
| 19 May. 2004 |
NCL
8 - 0
TON
84%
12%
5%
|
21 | 38 | 17 | -1 |
| 17 May. 2004 |
TAH
2 - 0
TON
88%
10%
3%
|
21 | 47 | 26 | 0 |
| 15 May. 2004 |
TON
2 - 1
COK
16%
21%
62%
|
19 | 30 | 11 | +2 |
| 10 May. 2004 |
SOL
6 - 0
TON
87%
9%
3%
|
20 | 43 | 23 | -1 |