Samoa vs Tonga analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
84.2%
Win probability
2.85
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.4%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
1%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.2%
6-0
2.5%
7-1
0.6%
8-2
0.1%
+6
3.1%
5-0
5.2%
6-1
1.4%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
6.7%
4-0
9.1%
5-1
2.9%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
12.4%
3-0
12.8%
4-1
5.1%
5-2
0.8%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.7%
2-0
13.5%
3-1
7.1%
4-2
1.4%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.1%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
7.5%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
19.2%
11.1%
Draw
0-0
3.3%
1-1
5.3%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.4%
4-4
<0%
0
11.1%
4.8%
Win probability
0.56
Expected goals
0-1
1.8%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0.1%
-1
3.8%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-21%
+13%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Samoa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 1996 |
TON
1 - 0
SAM
21%
26%
54%
|
37 | 14 | 23 | 0 |
| 13 Nov. 1996 |
SAM
2 - 1
COK
58%
23%
19%
|
37 | 34 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
Tonga
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 1996 |
TON
1 - 0
SAM
21%
26%
54%
|
14 | 37 | 23 | 0 |
| 11 Nov. 1996 |
TON
2 - 0
COK
18%
25%
57%
|
7 | 36 | 29 | +7 |