Europa League 1/64
Global 5-1
Roma vs FK Vardar analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
81.9%
Win probability
2.62
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
4.4%
6-1
1%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.5%
4-0
8.4%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
11%
3-0
12.8%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
<0%
+3
18%
2-0
14.7%
3-1
6.8%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.8%
1-0
11.3%
2-1
7.8%
3-2
1.8%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.1%
12.7%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
6%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
12.7%
5.4%
Win probability
0.53
Expected goals
0-1
2.3%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
4.3%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
JUV
2 - 2
ROM
60%
21%
18%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
ROM
5 - 0
BRE
71%
18%
11%
|
89 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
UDI
1 - 2
ROM
36%
26%
38%
|
89 | 84 | 5 | 0 |
| 31 May. 2003 |
ACM
2 - 2
ROM
54%
24%
22%
|
88 | 89 | 1 | +1 |
| 24 May. 2003 |
ROM
1 - 2
ATL
72%
18%
11%
|
89 | 81 | 8 | -1 |
Matches
FK Vardar
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep. 2003 |
BAS
0 - 3
VAR
39%
26%
35%
|
68 | 60 | 8 | 0 |
| 17 Sep. 2003 |
VAR
3 - 1
TIK
69%
18%
13%
|
68 | 54 | 14 | 0 |
| 14 Sep. 2003 |
MAD
0 - 1
VAR
24%
25%
50%
|
68 | 55 | 13 | 0 |
| 31 Aug. 2003 |
VAR
1 - 0
BEL
56%
23%
21%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 Aug. 2003 |
SPA
2 - 2
VAR
76%
16%
8%
|
68 | 84 | 16 | 0 |