Roma vs Milan analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
59.2%
Win probability
1.92
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.2%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.5%
3-0
6.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.6%
6-3
0.1%
+3
10.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.5%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
18.1%
1-0
10.5%
2-1
9.9%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.1%
21.9%
Draw
0-0
5.5%
1-1
10.4%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
21.9%
19%
Win probability
0.99
Expected goals
0-1
5.4%
1-2
5.1%
2-3
1.6%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
12.4%
0-2
2.7%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
4.8%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
-2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1938 |
GEN
1 - 1
ROM
55%
22%
23%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1938 |
INT
1 - 0
ROM
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1938 |
ROM
1 - 1
TRI
59%
22%
18%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1938 |
ROM
1 - 0
LIV
69%
18%
13%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 1938 |
JUV
0 - 0
ROM
66%
18%
16%
|
81 | 87 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Milan
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Apr. 1938 |
ACM
1 - 1
JUV
47%
24%
29%
|
80 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 17 Apr. 1938 |
BOL
2 - 2
ACM
67%
19%
14%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 1938 |
ACM
2 - 2
GEN
54%
23%
24%
|
80 | 79 | 1 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 1938 |
FIO
0 - 1
ACM
42%
25%
32%
|
79 | 72 | 7 | +1 |
| 27 Mar. 1938 |
ACM
4 - 0
ASL
76%
14%
10%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |