Europa League Semi-finals
Global 5-8
Roma vs Manchester United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
23.1%
Win probability
1.02
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.3%
5-1
0.1%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.4%
3-0
1.2%
4-1
0.5%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.8%
2-0
3.5%
3-1
2%
4-2
0.4%
5-3
<0%
+2
6%
1-0
7%
2-1
5.9%
3-2
1.7%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
14.8%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
4.9%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.4%
52.6%
Win probability
1.66
Expected goals
0-1
11.4%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.2%
0-2
9.5%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.1%
3-5
0.1%
-2
16.1%
0-3
5.3%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.9%
0-4
2.2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
-4
3%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
1%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.3%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2021 |
SAM
2 - 0
ROM
22%
22%
56%
|
87 | 79 | 8 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2021 |
MUD
6 - 2
ROM
62%
21%
17%
|
87 | 92 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2021 |
CAG
3 - 2
ROM
17%
21%
62%
|
88 | 75 | 13 | -1 |
| 22 Apr. 2021 |
ROM
1 - 1
ATL
37%
24%
40%
|
88 | 90 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2021 |
TOR
3 - 1
ROM
25%
23%
52%
|
88 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
Manchester United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Apr. 2021 |
MUD
6 - 2
ROM
62%
21%
17%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2021 |
LEE
0 - 0
MUD
14%
22%
65%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2021 |
MUD
3 - 1
BUR
74%
17%
9%
|
92 | 83 | 9 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2021 |
MUD
2 - 0
GRA
71%
18%
12%
|
92 | 85 | 7 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2021 |
TOT
1 - 3
MUD
37%
26%
38%
|
91 | 89 | 2 | +1 |