Roma vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.8%
Win probability
2.61
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.3%
7-1
0.4%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.4%
4-0
5.7%
5-1
2.7%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
9%
3-0
8.8%
4-1
5.2%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.4%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
20.9%
1-0
7.8%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
3.6%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
21.4%
15.4%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.1%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.4%
10.7%
Win probability
0.9
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.2%
2-3
1.2%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
7.4%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
2.5%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0.1%
-3
0.6%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-4%
-19%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Roma
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 1938 |
TRI
0 - 1
ROM
42%
25%
33%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1938 |
ROM
1 - 0
JUV
45%
26%
29%
|
81 | 85 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
ACL
3 - 2
ROM
42%
23%
35%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1938 |
ROM
1 - 0
ACM
59%
22%
19%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 24 Apr. 1938 |
GEN
1 - 1
ROM
55%
22%
23%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Oct. 1938 |
ASL
3 - 1
MOD
50%
21%
29%
|
67 | 68 | 1 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1938 |
TOR
5 - 1
ASL
79%
12%
8%
|
67 | 80 | 13 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1938 |
TRI
2 - 1
ASL
64%
19%
17%
|
68 | 78 | 10 | -1 |
| 18 Sep. 1938 |
ASL
1 - 0
JUV
17%
23%
60%
|
67 | 86 | 19 | +1 |
| 24 Apr. 1938 |
ASL
1 - 0
TRI
44%
25%
31%
|
66 | 78 | 12 | +1 |