Conmebol Sudamericana 1/32
Global 4-4
River Plate Montevideo vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.2%
Win probability
1.96
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1%
6-1
0.4%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1.5%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
4.1%
3-0
5.4%
4-1
3.1%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
9.3%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
6.4%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
16.8%
1-0
8.3%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
3.8%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.8%
21.8%
Draw
0-0
4.2%
1-1
10%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.5%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
21.8%
23%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
5.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.9%
0-2
3%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
6.2%
0-3
1.2%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.1%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
River Plate Montevideo
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Aug. 2010 |
JUN
0 - 1
RIV
27%
25%
49%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 2010 |
RIV
1 - 1
DEF
55%
23%
22%
|
76 | 76 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2010 |
GUA
2 - 0
RIV
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | -2 |
| 02 May. 2010 |
MWA
2 - 2
RIV
34%
25%
41%
|
78 | 70 | 8 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2010 |
RIV
4 - 1
RAC
65%
20%
16%
|
77 | 72 | 5 | +1 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug. 2010 |
LIB
2 - 0
GUA
47%
26%
27%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 Aug. 2010 |
GUA
0 - 0
NAC
51%
26%
24%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 20 Aug. 2010 |
GUA
2 - 0
RIV
43%
25%
32%
|
78 | 78 | 0 | +1 |
| 14 Aug. 2010 |
SPC
1 - 1
GUA
24%
27%
49%
|
78 | 62 | 16 | 0 |
| 07 Aug. 2010 |
GUA
1 - 0
TAC
67%
21%
12%
|
78 | 61 | 17 | 0 |