Intercontinental Final
Global 0-4
Real Madrid vs Peñarol analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
86%
Win probability
3.44
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.7%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.9%
7-0
1.6%
8-1
0.6%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.3%
6-0
3.3%
7-1
1.3%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.9%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
2.6%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
0.1%
+5
9.1%
4-0
8.5%
5-1
4.6%
6-2
1%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
14.3%
3-0
9.9%
4-1
6.7%
5-2
1.8%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.7%
2-0
8.7%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.6%
1-0
5%
2-1
6.8%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.7%
9.1%
Draw
0-0
1.5%
1-1
4%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
9.1%
4.9%
Win probability
0.79
Expected goals
0-1
1.2%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
3.6%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
+22%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct. 1966 |
SEV
0 - 1
RMA
19%
26%
55%
|
92 | 77 | 15 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
RMA
46%
22%
32%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |
| 08 Oct. 1966 |
RMA
3 - 1
ZAR
68%
19%
14%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1966 |
GRA
1 - 1
RMA
16%
25%
59%
|
92 | 64 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1966 |
RMA
1 - 1
ESP
85%
11%
5%
|
92 | 76 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Oct. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
RMA
46%
22%
32%
|
82 | 92 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 May. 1966 |
PEÑ
4 - 2
RIV
66%
18%
16%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1966 |
RIV
3 - 2
PEÑ
69%
17%
14%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
RIV
65%
18%
17%
|
82 | 85 | 3 | 0 |
| 23 Apr. 1966 |
NAC
0 - 1
PEÑ
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | +1 |