Copa del Rey Last 16
Global 3-1
Real Madrid vs CD Ourense analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
87.7%
Win probability
3.42
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.3%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.4%
8-0
0.8%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
1%
7-0
1.8%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.4%
6-0
3.7%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
5.1%
5-0
6.5%
6-1
2.5%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
9.5%
4-0
9.6%
5-1
4.4%
6-2
0.8%
7-3
0.1%
+4
14.9%
3-0
11.2%
4-1
6.4%
5-2
1.5%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
19.2%
2-0
9.8%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.1%
5-3
0.3%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.8%
1-0
5.7%
2-1
6.6%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
15.3%
8.3%
Draw
0-0
1.7%
1-1
3.8%
2-2
2.2%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
8.3%
3.9%
Win probability
0.67
Expected goals
0-1
1.1%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.5%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3%
0-2
0.4%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
0.8%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
2-5
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1975 |
CDO
0 - 0
RMA
16%
22%
62%
|
86 | 58 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1975 |
SPO
2 - 0
RMA
34%
27%
39%
|
86 | 74 | 12 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1975 |
RMA
4 - 0
MAL
81%
13%
6%
|
86 | 76 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 May. 1975 |
FCB
0 - 0
RMA
57%
23%
21%
|
86 | 86 | 0 | 0 |
| 04 May. 1975 |
RMA
2 - 0
ATH
78%
15%
8%
|
86 | 79 | 7 | 0 |
Matches
CD Ourense
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 1975 |
CDO
0 - 0
RMA
16%
22%
62%
|
58 | 86 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 May. 1975 |
CDO
1 - 1
REC
52%
27%
21%
|
58 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1975 |
MLL
3 - 0
CDO
46%
28%
26%
|
59 | 55 | 4 | -1 |
| 11 May. 1975 |
CDO
2 - 1
CDT
50%
27%
23%
|
58 | 60 | 2 | +1 |
| 04 May. 1975 |
VAD
2 - 2
CDO
68%
20%
12%
|
58 | 61 | 3 | 0 |