Champions League Playoffs Last 16
Global 6-2
Real Madrid vs Napoli analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
72.2%
Win probability
2.63
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
<0%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.2%
7-0
0.5%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.6%
6-0
1.2%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.8%
5-0
2.8%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
4.3%
4-0
5.3%
5-1
2.8%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
8.8%
3-0
8.1%
4-1
5.3%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
14.9%
2-0
9.2%
3-1
8%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
20.4%
1-0
7%
2-1
9.2%
3-2
4%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.2%
15.8%
Draw
0-0
2.7%
1-1
7%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
15.8%
12%
Win probability
1
Expected goals
0-1
2.7%
1-2
3.5%
2-3
1.5%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
8%
0-2
1.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.4%
3-5
0.1%
-2
2.9%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.8%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+3%
-7%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Feb. 2017 |
OSA
1 - 3
RMA
7%
14%
79%
|
93 | 78 | 15 | 0 |
| 29 Jan. 2017 |
RMA
3 - 0
RSO
77%
14%
9%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | +1 |
| 25 Jan. 2017 |
CEL
2 - 2
RMA
22%
22%
56%
|
92 | 87 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Jan. 2017 |
RMA
2 - 1
MAL
85%
10%
5%
|
92 | 86 | 6 | 0 |
| 18 Jan. 2017 |
RMA
1 - 2
CEL
81%
12%
7%
|
93 | 87 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Napoli
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Feb. 2017 |
NAP
2 - 0
GEN
81%
13%
6%
|
90 | 80 | 10 | 0 |
| 04 Feb. 2017 |
BOL
1 - 7
NAP
13%
22%
65%
|
89 | 77 | 12 | +1 |
| 29 Jan. 2017 |
NAP
1 - 1
PAL
86%
10%
4%
|
90 | 74 | 16 | -1 |
| 24 Jan. 2017 |
NAP
1 - 0
FIO
66%
18%
16%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | +1 |
| 21 Jan. 2017 |
ACM
1 - 2
NAP
36%
26%
38%
|
89 | 87 | 2 | 0 |