Cup Winners Cup 1/16
Global 6-1
Real Madrid vs FC Lugano analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.9%
Win probability
2.72
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1%
6-0
2.1%
7-1
0.5%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.6%
5-0
4.7%
6-1
1.2%
7-2
0.1%
+5
6%
4-0
8.7%
5-1
2.6%
6-2
0.3%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.6%
3-0
12.8%
4-1
4.7%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
+3
18.3%
2-0
14.2%
3-1
7%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.1%
+2
22.5%
1-0
10.4%
2-1
7.7%
3-2
1.9%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.3%
12%
Draw
0-0
3.8%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
2.1%
3-3
0.3%
4-4
<0%
0
12%
5.1%
Win probability
0.54
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
1.5%
2-3
0.4%
3-4
0%
-1
4%
0-2
0.6%
1-3
0.3%
2-4
0.1%
-2
0.9%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
0-4
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+1%
+2%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Sep. 1993 |
RMA
1 - 3
VAD
84%
11%
5%
|
89 | 76 | 13 | 0 |
| 04 Sep. 1993 |
OSA
1 - 4
RMA
20%
25%
56%
|
89 | 78 | 11 | 0 |
| 26 Jun. 1993 |
RMA
2 - 0
ZAR
82%
12%
6%
|
89 | 79 | 10 | 0 |
| 20 Jun. 1993 |
CDT
2 - 0
RMA
24%
25%
51%
|
90 | 79 | 11 | -1 |
| 16 Jun. 1993 |
FCB
1 - 2
RMA
65%
19%
15%
|
89 | 91 | 2 | +1 |
Matches
FC Lugano
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Sep. 1993 |
FCA
0 - 2
LUG
51%
26%
23%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Aug. 1993 |
KRI
0 - 3
LUG
34%
27%
39%
|
73 | 59 | 14 | 0 |
| 25 Aug. 1993 |
LUG
2 - 1
YVE
59%
23%
19%
|
73 | 68 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Aug. 1993 |
YOB
3 - 0
LUG
57%
24%
19%
|
73 | 74 | 1 | 0 |
| 14 Aug. 1993 |
GCZ
2 - 0
LUG
61%
22%
16%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | -1 |