Champions League Quarter-finals
Global 3-2
Real Madrid vs B. Dortmund analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
79.1%
Win probability
2.88
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.3%
9-1
0.1%
+8
0.4%
7-0
0.8%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
1.1%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
+6
2.7%
5-0
4%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.3%
8-3
<0%
+5
5.9%
4-0
7%
5-1
3.3%
6-2
0.7%
7-3
0.1%
+4
11.1%
3-0
9.7%
4-1
5.8%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
17.1%
2-0
10.1%
3-1
8.1%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
21.1%
1-0
7%
2-1
8.4%
3-2
3.4%
4-3
0.7%
5-4
0.1%
+1
19.6%
12.9%
Draw
0-0
2.4%
1-1
5.9%
2-2
3.5%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
12.9%
8%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
0-1
2%
1-2
2.5%
2-3
1%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
5.7%
0-2
0.9%
1-3
0.7%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
1.8%
0-3
0.2%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.4%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
-8%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2014 |
RMA
5 - 0
RAY
92%
6%
2%
|
97 | 82 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 Mar. 2014 |
SEV
2 - 1
RMA
11%
17%
72%
|
97 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 23 Mar. 2014 |
RMA
3 - 4
FCB
61%
19%
20%
|
97 | 96 | 1 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 2014 |
RMA
3 - 1
S04
88%
9%
4%
|
97 | 89 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2014 |
MAL
0 - 1
RMA
7%
14%
79%
|
97 | 85 | 12 | 0 |
Matches
B. Dortmund
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Mar. 2014 |
STU
2 - 3
BVB
11%
19%
70%
|
92 | 81 | 11 | 0 |
| 25 Mar. 2014 |
BVB
0 - 0
S04
60%
21%
19%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 22 Mar. 2014 |
HAN
0 - 3
BVB
17%
21%
62%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 19 Mar. 2014 |
BVB
1 - 2
ZEN
75%
16%
9%
|
92 | 84 | 8 | 0 |
| 15 Mar. 2014 |
BVB
1 - 2
MON
72%
18%
10%
|
93 | 86 | 7 | -1 |