Real Madrid vs Barcelona analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
55.2%
Win probability
2.13
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.6%
5-0
1.1%
6-1
0.5%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
1.8%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
1.5%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
4.9%
4-1
3.6%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
9.7%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
4-2
2.4%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
16.6%
1-0
6.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.5%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
20.7%
Draw
0-0
3%
1-1
8.8%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
20.7%
24.1%
Win probability
1.36
Expected goals
0-1
4.1%
1-2
6%
2-3
2.9%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
13.8%
0-2
2.8%
1-3
2.7%
2-4
1%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6.7%
0-3
1.3%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.3%
3-6
0%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.7%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
1-7
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-5%
+4%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Jan. 2025 |
RMA
3 - 0
MLL
89%
9%
3%
|
100 | 88 | 12 | 0 |
| 06 Jan. 2025 |
MIN
0 - 5
RMA
4%
12%
84%
|
100 | 47 | 53 | 0 |
| 03 Jan. 2025 |
VCF
1 - 2
RMA
8%
16%
77%
|
100 | 89 | 11 | 0 |
| 22 Dec. 2024 |
RMA
4 - 2
SEV
82%
13%
5%
|
100 | 90 | 10 | 0 |
| 18 Dec. 2024 |
RMA
3 - 0
PAC
89%
9%
2%
|
100 | 83 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Barcelona
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jan. 2025 |
ATH
0 - 2
FCB
14%
18%
69%
|
99 | 95 | 4 | 0 |
| 04 Jan. 2025 |
BAR
0 - 4
FCB
3%
10%
88%
|
99 | 50 | 49 | 0 |
| 21 Dec. 2024 |
FCB
1 - 2
ATM
61%
21%
18%
|
99 | 96 | 3 | 0 |
| 15 Dec. 2024 |
FCB
0 - 1
LEG
88%
9%
3%
|
99 | 83 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Dec. 2024 |
BVB
2 - 3
FCB
32%
22%
46%
|
99 | 96 | 3 | 0 |