UEFA EC U21 Semi-finals
Global 4-3
East Germany U21 vs Bulgaria U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.8%
Win probability
2.35
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.3%
6-0
0.7%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.8%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.8%
4-0
4%
5-1
2.1%
6-2
0.5%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.5%
3-0
6.7%
4-1
4.4%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
8.6%
3-1
7.5%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.1%
1-0
7.3%
2-1
9.6%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.2%
18.6%
Draw
0-0
3.1%
1-1
8.2%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.6%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.6%
16.7%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
3.5%
1-2
4.6%
2-3
2%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.6%
0-2
2%
1-3
1.7%
2-4
0.6%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.3%
0-3
0.7%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
1.3%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
East Germany U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1978 |
BGR
2 - 1
DDR
58%
21%
21%
|
61 | 57 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
DDR
5 - 2
CSK
60%
20%
20%
|
59 | 61 | 2 | +2 |
| 22 Mar. 1978 |
CSK
3 - 1
DDR
62%
20%
19%
|
61 | 59 | 2 | -2 |
Matches
Bulgaria U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Apr. 1978 |
BGR
2 - 1
DDR
58%
21%
21%
|
57 | 61 | 4 | 0 |
| 05 Apr. 1978 |
BGR
3 - 0
DEN
55%
22%
23%
|
55 | 61 | 6 | +2 |
| 23 Mar. 1978 |
DEN
4 - 1
BGR
67%
18%
15%
|
57 | 59 | 2 | -2 |