Liga MX Finals Ap. Quarter-finals
Global 3-1
Pumas UNAM vs Toluca analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.4%
Win probability
1.41
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.5%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
2%
3-0
4.4%
4-1
1.5%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
6%
2-0
9.3%
3-1
4.2%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
14.3%
1-0
13.2%
2-1
8.9%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.4%
27%
Draw
0-0
9.4%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.6%
4-4
0.1%
0
27%
25.6%
Win probability
0.96
Expected goals
0-1
9%
1-2
6.1%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
6.6%
0-3
1.4%
1-4
0.5%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-3%
+9%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pumas UNAM
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Nov. 2007 |
PAC
1 - 1
PUM
53%
25%
22%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2007 |
PUM
8 - 0
VER
61%
23%
17%
|
80 | 71 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2007 |
TOL
0 - 0
PUM
55%
25%
21%
|
80 | 83 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2007 |
PUM
1 - 2
CAZ
43%
27%
31%
|
80 | 82 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2007 |
SNL
3 - 2
PUM
43%
27%
30%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | -1 |
Matches
Toluca
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov. 2007 |
TOL
2 - 0
MOR
53%
24%
22%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 04 Nov. 2007 |
EST
2 - 3
TOL
44%
26%
30%
|
83 | 74 | 9 | 0 |
| 01 Nov. 2007 |
TOL
0 - 0
PUM
55%
25%
21%
|
83 | 80 | 3 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2007 |
JAG
0 - 0
TOL
42%
28%
30%
|
83 | 78 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2007 |
TOL
2 - 0
PUE
68%
20%
12%
|
83 | 68 | 15 | 0 |