Progress / AFA Olaine vs Riga FC II analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
19.4%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
6-1
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.2%
5-1
0.1%
+4
0.3%
3-0
0.9%
4-1
0.4%
5-2
0.1%
+3
1.3%
2-0
2.9%
3-1
1.6%
4-2
0.3%
5-3
<0%
+2
4.8%
1-0
6.2%
2-1
5.1%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
12.9%
23.1%
Draw
0-0
6.6%
1-1
11%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.1%
57.4%
Win probability
1.78
Expected goals
0-1
11.8%
1-2
9.8%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
24.7%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
5.8%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.1%
-2
17.7%
0-3
6.3%
1-4
2.6%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
9.3%
0-4
2.8%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
3.9%
0-5
1%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
1.3%
0-6
0.3%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.4%
0-7
0.1%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
-19%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
9º
14º
9º
34
4º
10º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
4º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
2º
|
50 | 63 |
1º
|
53.5% | |
|
1º
|
50 | 61 |
2º
|
43.5% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 57 |
3º
|
73% | |
|
|
4º
|
34 | 47 |
4º
|
84% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 42 |
5º
|
52% | |
|
6º
|
31 | 39 |
6º
|
49% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 36 |
7º
|
65.5% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 30 |
8º
|
51.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
16 | 27 |
9º
|
29.5% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 27 |
10º
|
26% | |
|
10º
|
19 | 23 |
11º
|
18.5% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 23 |
12º
|
21% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 19 |
13º
|
33.5% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 18 |
14º
|
49.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
88.5% | 100% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10% | 0% |
|
Relegation
|
1.5% | 0% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progress / AFA Olaine
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29 Jun. 2024 |
SUP
4 - 1
PRA
69%
17%
14%
|
39 | 49 | 10 | 0 |
| 21 Jun. 2024 |
RFA
1 - 5
PRA
29%
20%
52%
|
38 | 29 | 9 | +1 |
| 16 Jun. 2024 |
PRA
3 - 3
OUD
86%
9%
5%
|
38 | 16 | 22 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
PRA
3 - 0
ALI
78%
13%
9%
|
38 | 13 | 25 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 1
PRA
25%
20%
56%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | -1 |
Matches
Riga FC II
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun. 2024 |
RIG
2 - 1
VAL
62%
21%
17%
|
69 | 55 | 14 | 0 |
| 15 Jun. 2024 |
KFV
1 - 1
RIG
14%
22%
65%
|
69 | 30 | 39 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2024 |
TUK
0 - 7
RIG
19%
24%
57%
|
68 | 42 | 26 | +1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
RIG
3 - 0
RIG
28%
25%
48%
|
69 | 52 | 17 | -1 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
RIG
2 - 1
FSL
80%
14%
6%
|
69 | 18 | 51 | 0 |