Progress / AFA Olaine vs Ogre United analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
85.6%
Win probability
3.36
Expected goals
10-0
0.1%
+10
0.1%
9-0
0.2%
10-1
0.1%
+9
0.3%
8-0
0.6%
9-1
0.2%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.9%
7-0
1.5%
8-1
0.5%
9-2
0.1%
+7
2.1%
6-0
3.2%
7-1
1.2%
8-2
0.2%
9-3
<0%
+6
4.6%
5-0
5.8%
6-1
2.5%
7-2
0.5%
8-3
<0%
+5
8.7%
4-0
8.6%
5-1
4.4%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
+4
14%
3-0
10.2%
4-1
6.6%
5-2
1.7%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
18.7%
2-0
9.1%
3-1
7.8%
4-2
2.5%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
19.9%
1-0
5.4%
2-1
7%
3-2
3%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.1%
9.4%
Draw
0-0
1.6%
1-1
4.2%
2-2
2.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
9.4%
5%
Win probability
0.77
Expected goals
0-1
1.2%
1-2
1.6%
2-3
0.7%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
3.7%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.4%
2-4
0.1%
3-5
0%
-2
1%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0.1%
2-5
0%
-3
0.2%
0-4
0%
1-5
0%
-4
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-18%
+546%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
16
9º
14º
9º
19
7º
12º
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
10º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
50 | 61 |
1º
|
46% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 61 |
2º
|
44% | |
|
3º
|
46 | 59 |
3º
|
66.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 47 |
4º
|
89% | |
|
5º
|
32 | 42 |
5º
|
59.5% | |
|
7º
|
26 | 37 |
6º
|
38% | |
|
6º
|
28 | 36 |
7º
|
51% | |
|
8º
|
26 | 30 |
8º
|
51% | |
|
|
11º
|
16 | 27 |
9º
|
29% | |
|
9º
|
22 | 27 |
10º
|
28% | |
|
12º
|
16 | 24 |
11º
|
26.5% | |
|
|
10º
|
19 | 23 |
12º
|
31.5% | |
|
13º
|
12 | 19 |
13º
|
37.5% | |
|
14º
|
11 | 18 |
14º
|
52% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
87.5% | 34.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
10.5% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation
|
2% | 34% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progress / AFA Olaine
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Jun. 2024 |
PRA
3 - 0
ALI
78%
13%
9%
|
38 | 13 | 25 | 0 |
| 25 May. 2024 |
MAR
2 - 1
PRA
25%
20%
56%
|
39 | 30 | 9 | -1 |
| 18 May. 2024 |
PRA
1 - 1
SMI
68%
16%
16%
|
39 | 28 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 May. 2024 |
RFA
1 - 2
PRA
41%
20%
39%
|
38 | 34 | 4 | +1 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
VAL
3 - 2
PRA
71%
17%
13%
|
38 | 54 | 16 | 0 |
Matches
Ogre United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Jun. 2024 |
OUD
2 - 7
MAR
16%
17%
67%
|
17 | 32 | 15 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2024 |
OUD
4 - 0
VAL
11%
18%
71%
|
16 | 55 | 39 | +1 |
| 19 May. 2024 |
KFV
2 - 0
OUD
71%
17%
12%
|
16 | 27 | 11 | 0 |
| 11 May. 2024 |
OUD
1 - 0
TUK
8%
13%
80%
|
9 | 45 | 36 | +7 |
| 04 May. 2024 |
RIG
5 - 0
OUD
84%
11%
5%
|
9 | 52 | 43 | 0 |