Progreso vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.4%
Win probability
1.64
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.6%
3-0
4.3%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.8%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
5.2%
4-2
1.3%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.4%
1-0
9.5%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
0.1%
+1
22.6%
24.4%
Draw
0-0
5.8%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.3%
4-4
0.2%
5-5
<0%
0
24.4%
28.2%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
7%
1-2
6.9%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.6%
0-2
4.2%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.9%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-22%
+33%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
0
8º
16º
8º
0
4º
14º
4º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
14º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
3º
|
3 | 24 |
1º
|
14.5% | |
|
2º
|
3 | 22 |
2º
|
9% | |
|
9º
|
1 | 22 |
3º
|
7.5% | |
|
|
14º
|
0 | 22 |
4º
|
5.5% | |
|
1º
|
3 | 22 |
5º
|
6% | |
|
10º
|
1 | 22 |
6º
|
7% | |
|
12º
|
1 | 22 |
7º
|
7% | |
|
|
15º
|
0 | 21 |
8º
|
5% | |
|
11º
|
1 | 20 |
9º
|
7% | |
|
6º
|
1 | 20 |
10º
|
4% | |
|
7º
|
1 | 20 |
11º
|
6% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 19 |
12º
|
6.5% | |
|
13º
|
0 | 19 |
13º
|
7% | |
|
4º
|
3 | 19 |
14º
|
5.5% | |
|
5º
|
1 | 17 |
15º
|
12.5% | |
|
8º
|
1 | 14 |
16º
|
35.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
10% | 8.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
90% | 91.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progreso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
PRO
1 - 3
PEÑ
48%
25%
27%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 30 Nov. 2024 |
CEL
2 - 1
PRO
39%
26%
35%
|
81 | 81 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 Nov. 2024 |
PRO
1 - 5
PEÑ
48%
25%
27%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |
| 18 Nov. 2024 |
PRO
2 - 2
FEN
58%
23%
18%
|
82 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 2024 |
DEF
3 - 0
PRO
45%
25%
30%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Feb. 2025 |
TOR
1 - 0
NAC
45%
25%
30%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jan. 2025 |
NAC
2 - 1
PEÑ
48%
23%
28%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | -1 |
| 07 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
2 - 2
DEF
53%
23%
24%
|
82 | 81 | 1 | 0 |
| 01 Dec. 2024 |
NAC
3 - 1
BOS
53%
24%
23%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 Nov. 2024 |
DAN
0 - 0
NAC
34%
28%
38%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |