Copa Uruguay Semi-finals
Global 2-4
Progreso vs Defensor Sporting analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
35.7%
Win probability
1.28
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.8%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.1%
3-0
2.6%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.9%
2-0
6%
3-1
3.4%
4-2
0.7%
5-3
0.1%
+2
10.3%
1-0
9.4%
2-1
8%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
20.1%
26.4%
Draw
0-0
7.4%
1-1
12.5%
2-2
5.3%
3-3
1%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.3%
38%
Win probability
1.33
Expected goals
0-1
9.8%
1-2
8.3%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.3%
4-5
0%
-1
20.8%
0-2
6.5%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
11.1%
0-3
2.9%
1-4
1.2%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
4.3%
0-4
1%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.3%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.3%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progreso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Oct. 2022 |
TOR
1 - 2
PRO
56%
23%
21%
|
67 | 69 | 2 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 2022 |
CEN
1 - 1
PRO
36%
29%
36%
|
67 | 62 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Sep. 2022 |
REN
0 - 3
PRO
37%
26%
38%
|
66 | 61 | 5 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 2022 |
PRO
3 - 1
SUD
45%
27%
29%
|
65 | 62 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Sep. 2022 |
CER
1 - 1
PRO
46%
28%
26%
|
65 | 67 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Defensor Sporting
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Oct. 2022 |
DEF
2 - 3
REN
73%
18%
9%
|
74 | 56 | 18 | 0 |
| 15 Oct. 2022 |
DEP
0 - 0
DEF
33%
28%
38%
|
74 | 69 | 5 | 0 |
| 13 Oct. 2022 |
DEF
1 - 1
DAN
56%
25%
19%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 09 Oct. 2022 |
NAC
1 - 1
DEF
59%
23%
18%
|
74 | 81 | 7 | 0 |
| 04 Oct. 2022 |
DEF
3 - 0
LFC
41%
25%
34%
|
73 | 77 | 4 | +1 |