Progreso vs Cerro CA analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
56.4%
Win probability
1.74
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.3%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.9%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.2%
4-0
2.6%
5-1
0.9%
6-2
0.1%
+4
3.6%
3-0
6.1%
4-1
2.5%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
9%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
5.7%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
17.4%
1-0
12%
2-1
9.8%
3-2
2.6%
4-3
0.4%
5-4
<0%
+1
24.8%
23.5%
Draw
0-0
6.9%
1-1
11.2%
2-2
4.6%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
23.5%
20%
Win probability
0.93
Expected goals
0-1
6.4%
1-2
5.2%
2-3
1.4%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
13.3%
0-2
3%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5%
0-3
0.9%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.4%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-17%
+9%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
15º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
1
10º
15º
15º
4
10º
16º
9º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
9º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
9 | 12 |
1º
|
56.5% | |
|
5º
|
7 | 10 |
2º
|
20% | |
|
2º
|
9 | 10 |
3º
|
13.5% | |
|
3º
|
9 | 10 |
4º
|
12.5% | |
|
4º
|
8 | 9 |
5º
|
10% | |
|
7º
|
6 | 9 |
6º
|
16.5% | |
|
6º
|
7 | 8 |
7º
|
12.5% | |
|
10º
|
4 | 7 |
8º
|
14.5% | |
|
|
9º
|
4 | 7 |
9º
|
12% | |
|
8º
|
4 | 7 |
10º
|
19% | |
|
11º
|
4 | 7 |
11º
|
18% | |
|
12º
|
3 | 6 |
12º
|
17% | |
|
13º
|
2 | 5 |
13º
|
26.5% | |
|
14º
|
1 | 2 |
14º
|
33.5% | |
|
|
15º
|
1 | 2 |
15º
|
42.5% | |
|
16º
|
0 | 0 |
16º
|
78.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Champion
|
0% | 0% |
|
Mid-table
|
100% | 100% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Progreso
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Sep. 2024 |
JUN
2 - 0
PRO
34%
26%
40%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 Aug. 2024 |
PRO
0 - 0
CSM
52%
24%
24%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 27 Jul. 2024 |
FEN
1 - 1
PRO
31%
26%
43%
|
81 | 78 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
PRO
0 - 1
DEP
60%
22%
18%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
MWA
4 - 2
PRO
35%
27%
39%
|
81 | 79 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Cerro CA
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Sep. 2024 |
CER
1 - 1
DEF
38%
28%
34%
|
79 | 81 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 Aug. 2024 |
MWA
1 - 0
CER
45%
27%
28%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 28 Jul. 2024 |
CER
4 - 1
JUN
41%
28%
32%
|
79 | 78 | 1 | 0 |
| 21 Jul. 2024 |
LFC
0 - 1
CER
58%
23%
20%
|
78 | 81 | 3 | +1 |
| 14 Jul. 2024 |
CER
0 - 1
CEL
42%
29%
29%
|
79 | 80 | 1 | -1 |