Pro Patria vs Lucchese Libertas analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.8%
Win probability
2.16
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.6%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2%
4-0
3.1%
5-1
1.6%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
<0%
+4
5.1%
3-0
5.7%
4-1
3.8%
5-2
1%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.9%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.3%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
17.7%
1-0
7.4%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
4.3%
4-3
0.9%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
22.4%
20.3%
Draw
0-0
3.4%
1-1
9%
2-2
5.9%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
20.3%
20.9%
Win probability
1.22
Expected goals
0-1
4.2%
1-2
5.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.6%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.2%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
5.6%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.9%
0-4
0.3%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.5%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pro Patria
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 1940 |
PRO
5 - 0
AMB
86%
10%
5%
|
67 | 15 | 52 | 0 |
| 06 Oct. 1940 |
PRO
3 - 2
USD
85%
10%
5%
|
67 | 13 | 54 | 0 |
| 29 Sep. 1940 |
PRO
2 - 0
SER
80%
12%
8%
|
67 | 44 | 23 | 0 |
| 22 Sep. 1940 |
PRO
1 - 0
PAV
78%
13%
9%
|
66 | 48 | 18 | +1 |
| 11 Sep. 1938 |
VAR
2 - 1
PRO
52%
22%
26%
|
67 | 61 | 6 | -1 |
Matches
Lucchese Libertas
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec. 1940 |
ASL
6 - 2
SCC
84%
10%
5%
|
67 | 21 | 46 | 0 |
| 28 May. 1939 |
ASL
3 - 1
ACL
40%
24%
36%
|
66 | 76 | 10 | +1 |
| 21 May. 1939 |
ACM
1 - 0
ASL
75%
15%
10%
|
66 | 79 | 13 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 1939 |
ASL
0 - 1
NOV
48%
23%
30%
|
66 | 71 | 5 | 0 |
| 21 Apr. 1939 |
LAZ
5 - 0
ASL
72%
16%
13%
|
67 | 78 | 11 | -1 |