UEFA EC U21 Quarter-finals
Global 1-2
Portugal U21 vs Italy U21 analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
44.1%
Win probability
1.39
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
+5
0.5%
4-0
1.3%
5-1
0.4%
6-2
<0%
+4
1.8%
3-0
3.8%
4-1
1.4%
5-2
0.2%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.5%
2-0
8.2%
3-1
4.1%
4-2
0.8%
5-3
0.1%
+2
13.2%
1-0
11.9%
2-1
8.8%
3-2
2.2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
23.2%
26.9%
Draw
0-0
8.6%
1-1
12.7%
2-2
4.7%
3-3
0.8%
4-4
0.1%
0
26.9%
29%
Win probability
1.07
Expected goals
0-1
9.2%
1-2
6.8%
2-3
1.7%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
17.9%
0-2
4.9%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.1%
-3
2.5%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Portugal U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Feb. 1996 |
POR
3 - 3
GER
43%
27%
31%
|
69 | 73 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Nov. 1995 |
POR
3 - 1
IRL
71%
19%
10%
|
69 | 52 | 17 | 0 |
| 10 Oct. 1995 |
AUT
0 - 1
POR
25%
26%
49%
|
69 | 51 | 18 | 0 |
| 02 Sep. 1995 |
POR
2 - 0
ENG
50%
25%
25%
|
68 | 68 | 0 | +1 |
| 02 Jun. 1995 |
POR
4 - 0
LVA
66%
21%
13%
|
67 | 54 | 13 | +1 |
Matches
Italy U21
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 Nov. 1995 |
ITA
0 - 0
LTU
81%
14%
5%
|
76 | 54 | 22 | 0 |
| 10 Nov. 1995 |
ITA
2 - 1
UKR
68%
20%
13%
|
76 | 64 | 12 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 1995 |
CRO
2 - 2
ITA
24%
26%
50%
|
76 | 61 | 15 | 0 |
| 07 Sep. 1995 |
ITA
1 - 0
SVN
75%
17%
8%
|
76 | 60 | 16 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 1995 |
LTU
0 - 2
ITA
14%
23%
63%
|
75 | 52 | 23 | +1 |