Pontypridd United vs Caernarfon Town FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
25.8%
Win probability
1.13
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
+6
<0%
5-0
0.1%
6-1
<0%
+5
0.1%
4-0
0.4%
5-1
0.2%
6-2
<0%
+4
0.6%
3-0
1.5%
4-1
0.7%
5-2
0.1%
6-3
<0%
+3
2.3%
2-0
3.9%
3-1
2.4%
4-2
0.6%
5-3
0.1%
+2
7%
1-0
6.9%
2-1
6.5%
3-2
2%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
15.8%
24.3%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.5%
2-2
5.4%
3-3
1.1%
4-4
0.1%
0
24.3%
49.9%
Win probability
1.67
Expected goals
0-1
10.2%
1-2
9.6%
2-3
3%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0%
-1
23.3%
0-2
8.5%
1-3
5.3%
2-4
1.2%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
15.2%
0-3
4.7%
1-4
2.2%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0%
-3
7.4%
0-4
2%
1-5
0.7%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.7%
1-6
0.2%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
-35%
-3%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
12º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
13
7º
12º
10º
31
1º
8º
7º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
6º
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
1º
|
62 | 82 |
1º
|
100% | |
|
2º
|
47 | 59 |
2º
|
89.5% | |
|
3º
|
37 | 49 |
3º
|
33% | |
|
8º
|
28 | 48 |
4º
|
34% | |
|
5º
|
33 | 47 |
5º
|
25.5% | |
|
4º
|
34 | 46 |
6º
|
22% | |
|
|
6º
|
31 | 43 |
7º
|
21% | |
|
7º
|
28 | 42 |
8º
|
23% | |
|
9º
|
23 | 34 |
9º
|
37% | |
|
|
12º
|
13 | 33 |
10º
|
38.5% | |
|
10º
|
15 | 27 |
11º
|
48% | |
|
11º
|
14 | 25 |
12º
|
68.5% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Play-offs for the title
|
3% | 31.5% |
|
Relegation play-offs
|
97% | 68.5% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pontypridd United
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
NEW
3 - 1
PON
70%
19%
11%
|
54 | 66 | 12 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
PON
0 - 3
COL
54%
23%
23%
|
55 | 50 | 5 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
BAL
0 - 0
PON
65%
21%
14%
|
55 | 64 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 Oct. 2023 |
PON
1 - 3
CAR
23%
27%
50%
|
55 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
PON
0 - 3
CON
24%
27%
49%
|
56 | 67 | 11 | -1 |
Matches
Caernarfon Town FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Nov. 2023 |
BAL
1 - 1
CAE
51%
24%
25%
|
59 | 65 | 6 | 0 |
| 19 Nov. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 3
BAR
68%
19%
13%
|
60 | 54 | 6 | -1 |
| 04 Nov. 2023 |
CAE
2 - 4
PEN
39%
26%
36%
|
60 | 66 | 6 | 0 |
| 27 Oct. 2023 |
CON
6 - 1
CAE
49%
25%
26%
|
61 | 67 | 6 | -1 |
| 21 Oct. 2023 |
CAE
5 - 1
CAR
36%
27%
38%
|
59 | 67 | 8 | +2 |