Q. Europa League Tercera Ronda Final
Global 1-4
Polonia Warszawa vs NAC Breda analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
43%
Win probability
1.52
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.1%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.4%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.6%
4-0
1.4%
5-1
0.5%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2%
3-0
3.6%
4-1
1.7%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
5.7%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
4.6%
4-2
1.1%
5-3
0.1%
6-4
<0%
+2
12.9%
1-0
9.3%
2-1
9%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
21.7%
25.1%
Draw
0-0
6.1%
1-1
11.9%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
25.1%
31.9%
Win probability
1.27
Expected goals
0-1
7.8%
1-2
7.5%
2-3
2.4%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
18.2%
0-2
5%
1-3
3.2%
2-4
0.8%
3-5
0.1%
-2
9%
0-3
2.1%
1-4
1%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
3.3%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.3%
2-6
0%
-4
1%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Polonia Warszawa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2009 |
POL
4 - 0
JUV
62%
22%
16%
|
74 | 63 | 11 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2009 |
JUV
0 - 1
POL
29%
26%
45%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2009 |
POL
0 - 1
BUD
62%
22%
16%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | -1 |
| 02 Jul. 2009 |
BUD
0 - 2
POL
40%
25%
35%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
| 30 May. 2009 |
GÓR
0 - 1
POL
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 71 | 3 | 0 |
Matches
NAC Breda
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 2009 |
GAN
0 - 2
NAC
30%
24%
45%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | 0 |
| 16 Jul. 2009 |
NAC
6 - 0
GAN
59%
23%
19%
|
74 | 67 | 7 | +1 |
| 31 May. 2009 |
GRO
0 - 2
NAC
52%
24%
25%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | +1 |
| 28 May. 2009 |
NAC
1 - 1
GRO
39%
25%
36%
|
73 | 76 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 May. 2009 |
FEY
0 - 4
NAC
61%
21%
18%
|
71 | 78 | 7 | +2 |