Q. Europa League Segunda Ronda Final
Global 5-0
Polonia Warszawa vs Juvenes / Dogana analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
61.7%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.4%
7-1
0.1%
+6
0.5%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
<0%
+5
1.6%
4-0
3.4%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.1%
+4
4.6%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
2.8%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
11.8%
3-1
6%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.1%
+2
19.1%
1-0
12.7%
2-1
9.7%
3-2
2.5%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25.3%
22.1%
Draw
0-0
6.8%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
4%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
22.1%
16.2%
Win probability
0.83
Expected goals
0-1
5.6%
1-2
4.3%
2-3
1.1%
3-4
0.1%
4-5
0%
-1
11.2%
0-2
2.3%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.2%
3-5
0%
-2
3.8%
0-3
0.6%
1-4
0.2%
2-5
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
-5
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Polonia Warszawa
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2009 |
JUV
0 - 1
POL
29%
26%
45%
|
74 | 64 | 10 | 0 |
| 09 Jul. 2009 |
POL
0 - 1
BUD
62%
22%
16%
|
75 | 66 | 9 | -1 |
| 02 Jul. 2009 |
BUD
0 - 2
POL
40%
25%
35%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | +1 |
| 30 May. 2009 |
GÓR
0 - 1
POL
43%
27%
30%
|
74 | 70 | 4 | 0 |
| 23 May. 2009 |
POL
3 - 3
LPO
37%
27%
36%
|
74 | 78 | 4 | 0 |
Matches
Juvenes / Dogana
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Jul. 2009 |
JUV
0 - 1
POL
29%
26%
45%
|
64 | 74 | 10 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2009 |
MUR
1 - 3
JUV
60%
22%
18%
|
62 | 66 | 4 | +2 |
| 04 May. 2009 |
JUV
2 - 1
DOM
59%
21%
20%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | 0 |
| 30 Apr. 2009 |
COS
0 - 1
JUV
40%
24%
36%
|
62 | 55 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Apr. 2009 |
FIO
0 - 2
JUV
51%
23%
25%
|
61 | 62 | 1 | +1 |