Pesch vs Herkenrath analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
9%
Win probability
0.84
Expected goals
5-0
<0%
+5
<0%
4-0
0.1%
5-1
<0%
+4
0.1%
3-0
0.3%
4-1
0.2%
5-2
<0%
+3
0.5%
2-0
1%
3-1
0.8%
4-2
0.2%
5-3
<0%
+2
2%
1-0
2.4%
2-1
2.7%
3-2
1%
4-3
0.2%
5-4
<0%
+1
6.4%
14.2%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
3.7%
3-3
0.9%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
14.2%
76.8%
Win probability
2.72
Expected goals
0-1
7.7%
1-2
8.8%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
20.6%
0-2
10.5%
1-3
8%
2-4
2.3%
3-5
0.4%
4-6
0%
-2
21.2%
0-3
9.5%
1-4
5.5%
2-5
1.3%
3-6
0.2%
4-7
0%
-3
16.4%
0-4
6.5%
1-5
3%
2-6
0.6%
3-7
0.1%
-4
10.1%
0-5
3.5%
1-6
1.3%
2-7
0.2%
3-8
0%
-5
5.1%
0-6
1.6%
1-7
0.5%
2-8
0.1%
-6
2.2%
0-7
0.6%
1-8
0.2%
2-9
0%
-7
0.8%
0-8
0.2%
1-9
0.1%
-8
0.3%
0-9
0.1%
1-10
0%
-9
0.1%
0-10
0%
-10
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Pesch
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2018 |
ALT
2 - 2
PES
75%
15%
10%
|
16 | 23 | 7 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2018 |
BER
1 - 2
PES
77%
14%
9%
|
15 | 23 | 8 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2018 |
PES
2 - 2
EUR
17%
18%
65%
|
15 | 22 | 7 | 0 |
| 15 Apr. 2018 |
H05
2 - 2
PES
88%
8%
4%
|
15 | 27 | 12 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2018 |
HIL
4 - 1
PES
59%
19%
21%
|
15 | 16 | 1 | 0 |
Matches
Herkenrath
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06 May. 2018 |
HER
6 - 2
EUR
76%
14%
10%
|
34 | 21 | 13 | 0 |
| 29 Apr. 2018 |
H05
1 - 3
HER
29%
21%
50%
|
33 | 25 | 8 | +1 |
| 22 Apr. 2018 |
HER
4 - 2
BFR
60%
20%
20%
|
32 | 27 | 5 | +1 |
| 15 Apr. 2018 |
VIA
4 - 3
HER
23%
20%
57%
|
33 | 23 | 10 | -1 |
| 11 Apr. 2018 |
HUR
1 - 2
HER
26%
21%
53%
|
32 | 24 | 8 | +1 |