Penya Independent vs Mercadal analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
82.9%
Win probability
2.57
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.7%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.8%
6-0
1.9%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
<0%
+6
2.3%
5-0
4.5%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.1%
+5
5.5%
4-0
8.8%
5-1
2%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
11.1%
3-0
13.8%
4-1
4%
5-2
0.5%
6-3
<0%
+3
18.2%
2-0
16.1%
3-1
6.2%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
23.3%
1-0
12.5%
2-1
7.3%
3-2
1.4%
4-3
0.1%
+1
21.4%
12.5%
Draw
0-0
4.9%
1-1
5.7%
2-2
1.7%
3-3
0.2%
4-4
<0%
0
12.5%
4.6%
Win probability
0.45
Expected goals
0-1
2.2%
1-2
1.3%
2-3
0.2%
3-4
0%
-1
3.8%
0-2
0.5%
1-3
0.2%
2-4
0%
-2
0.7%
0-3
0.1%
1-4
0%
-3
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+7%
+21%
Points and table prediction
Their league position
CURR.POS.
1º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
43
1º
3º
1º
25
7º
16º
11º
PTS.
Best position
Worst
EXP.
CURR.POS.
11º
Expected position in the table
| Current table | Final expectations | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RK | PTS. | PTS. | RK | PROB | ||
|
|
1º
|
43 | 70 |
1º
|
47% | |
|
2º
|
42 | 69 |
2º
|
31.5% | |
|
3º
|
38 | 65 |
3º
|
27% | |
|
4º
|
38 | 65 |
4º
|
28.5% | |
|
5º
|
36 | 57 |
5º
|
34.5% | |
|
6º
|
30 | 49 |
6º
|
23% | |
|
8º
|
27 | 48 |
7º
|
18.5% | |
|
10º
|
25 | 46 |
8º
|
12% | |
|
9º
|
27 | 46 |
9º
|
10.5% | |
|
14º
|
24 | 45 |
10º
|
9.5% | |
|
|
11º
|
25 | 43 |
11º
|
12% | |
|
12º
|
25 | 43 |
12º
|
9.5% | |
|
7º
|
27 | 42 |
13º
|
14% | |
|
13º
|
25 | 40 |
14º
|
11% | |
|
15º
|
21 | 37 |
15º
|
21.5% | |
|
16º
|
15 | 33 |
16º
|
35.5% | |
|
17º
|
13 | 25 |
17º
|
62.5% | |
|
18º
|
7 | 18 |
18º
|
78% | |
| Expected probabilities | ||
|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
Promotion
|
47% | 0% |
|
Promotion play-offs
|
52.5% | 2.5% |
|
Mid-table
|
0.5% | 86.5% |
|
Relegation
|
0% | 11% |
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penya Independent
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09 Nov. 2024 |
PIN
1 - 0
LLO
77%
15%
8%
|
47 | 34 | 13 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
PIN
3 - 1
CON
73%
17%
10%
|
46 | 36 | 10 | +1 |
| 20 Oct. 2024 |
POR
0 - 2
PIN
25%
25%
50%
|
46 | 37 | 9 | 0 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
PIN
1 - 0
BNS
81%
13%
6%
|
46 | 28 | 18 | 0 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
POR
0 - 0
PIN
13%
21%
66%
|
46 | 29 | 17 | 0 |
Matches
Mercadal
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Nov. 2024 |
MER
1 - 1
CFP
27%
26%
46%
|
28 | 40 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Oct. 2024 |
MER
0 - 2
POR
29%
24%
48%
|
29 | 35 | 6 | -1 |
| 19 Oct. 2024 |
BNS
2 - 0
MER
37%
26%
37%
|
31 | 28 | 3 | -2 |
| 12 Oct. 2024 |
MER
0 - 0
POR
46%
24%
30%
|
30 | 31 | 1 | +1 |
| 05 Oct. 2024 |
MNC
5 - 1
MER
62%
21%
18%
|
32 | 36 | 4 | -2 |