Penn State vs UMass Minutemen analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
58.2%
Win probability
2.24
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
<0%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.2%
8-1
0.1%
+7
0.2%
6-0
0.5%
7-1
0.2%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.7%
5-0
1.3%
6-1
0.7%
7-2
0.1%
8-3
<0%
+5
2.2%
4-0
3%
5-1
1.8%
6-2
0.4%
7-3
0.1%
+4
5.2%
3-0
5.3%
4-1
3.9%
5-2
1.2%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
10.6%
2-0
7.1%
3-1
7%
4-2
2.6%
5-3
0.5%
6-4
0.1%
+2
17.3%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.7%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.7%
19.9%
Draw
0-0
2.8%
1-1
8.4%
2-2
6.2%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
19.9%
21.9%
Win probability
1.32
Expected goals
0-1
3.7%
1-2
5.6%
2-3
2.7%
3-4
0.7%
4-5
0.1%
-1
12.8%
0-2
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
2-4
0.9%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
6%
0-3
1.1%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.2%
0-4
0.4%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0.1%
-4
0.6%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
2-7
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Penn State
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Apr. 2021 |
IDH
1 - 1
PSN
57%
20%
23%
|
32 | 36 | 4 | 0 |
| 14 Apr. 2021 |
PSN
4 - 1
MGW
70%
16%
14%
|
32 | 23 | 9 | 0 |
| 10 Apr. 2021 |
PSN
3 - 1
OSE
79%
13%
8%
|
32 | 19 | 13 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 2021 |
MLT
2 - 2
PSN
21%
20%
59%
|
33 | 21 | 12 | -1 |
| 27 Mar. 2021 |
PSN
1 - 0
WIS
89%
8%
3%
|
32 | 12 | 20 | +1 |
Matches
UMass Minutemen
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Apr. 2021 |
LSE
1 - 2
UMA
32%
22%
46%
|
24 | 19 | 5 | 0 |
| 03 Apr. 2021 |
FDU
1 - 1
UMA
66%
18%
16%
|
24 | 31 | 7 | 0 |
| 27 Mar. 2021 |
SJH
1 - 2
UMA
31%
22%
48%
|
24 | 18 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 2021 |
UMA
1 - 2
FDU
36%
22%
43%
|
24 | 30 | 6 | 0 |
| 20 Mar. 2021 |
UMA
5 - 2
RIR
62%
19%
19%
|
24 | 20 | 4 | 0 |