Copa Libertadores Final
Global 1-2
Peñarol vs Santos FC analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
29.9%
Win probability
1.37
Expected goals
6-0
<0%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.1%
5-0
0.2%
6-1
0.1%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.3%
4-0
0.6%
5-1
0.3%
6-2
0.1%
+4
1%
3-0
1.9%
4-1
1.1%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
3.3%
2-0
4.1%
3-1
3.3%
4-2
1%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
8.5%
1-0
5.9%
2-1
7.2%
3-2
2.9%
4-3
0.6%
5-4
0.1%
+1
16.7%
23.2%
Draw
0-0
4.3%
1-1
10.5%
2-2
6.4%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
23.2%
46.9%
Win probability
1.77
Expected goals
0-1
7.6%
1-2
9.3%
2-3
3.8%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
-1
21.5%
0-2
6.8%
1-3
5.5%
2-4
1.7%
3-5
0.3%
4-6
0%
-2
14.2%
0-3
4%
1-4
2.4%
2-5
0.6%
3-6
0.1%
-3
7.1%
0-4
1.8%
1-5
0.9%
2-6
0.2%
3-7
0%
-4
2.8%
0-5
0.6%
1-6
0.3%
2-7
0%
-5
0.9%
0-6
0.2%
1-7
0.1%
-6
0.2%
0-7
0%
1-8
0%
-7
0.1%
0-8
0%
-8
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
PEÑ
0 - 1
RAC
72%
19%
10%
|
81 | 69 | 12 | 0 |
| 03 Jun. 2011 |
VEL
2 - 1
PEÑ
48%
25%
28%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | 0 |
| 29 May. 2011 |
PEÑ
2 - 2
CEN
71%
19%
11%
|
81 | 68 | 13 | 0 |
| 27 May. 2011 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
VEL
44%
26%
30%
|
80 | 84 | 4 | +1 |
| 22 May. 2011 |
DEF
1 - 1
PEÑ
44%
24%
32%
|
80 | 78 | 2 | 0 |
Matches
Santos FC
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jun. 2011 |
CRZ
1 - 1
SAN
52%
23%
25%
|
85 | 86 | 1 | 0 |
| 05 Jun. 2011 |
SAN
3 - 1
AVA
67%
19%
13%
|
85 | 74 | 11 | 0 |
| 02 Jun. 2011 |
CCP
3 - 3
SAN
27%
26%
47%
|
85 | 76 | 9 | 0 |
| 28 May. 2011 |
BOT
1 - 0
SAN
40%
24%
35%
|
85 | 82 | 3 | 0 |
| 26 May. 2011 |
SAN
1 - 0
CCP
65%
21%
15%
|
85 | 78 | 7 | 0 |