Intercontinental Final
Global 4-0
Peñarol vs Real Madrid analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
46%
Win probability
1.86
Expected goals
8-0
<0%
+8
<0%
7-0
0.1%
8-1
<0%
+7
0.1%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
0.1%
8-2
<0%
+6
0.3%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.3%
7-2
0.1%
+5
1%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
1%
6-2
0.2%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.9%
3-0
3.7%
4-1
2.6%
5-2
0.7%
6-3
0.1%
7-4
<0%
+3
7.1%
2-0
5.9%
3-1
5.6%
4-2
1.9%
5-3
0.4%
6-4
<0%
+2
13.9%
1-0
6.4%
2-1
9%
3-2
4.2%
4-3
1%
5-4
0.1%
6-5
<0%
+1
20.7%
22.4%
Draw
0-0
3.5%
1-1
9.7%
2-2
6.8%
3-3
2.1%
4-4
0.4%
5-5
<0%
0
22.4%
31.6%
Win probability
1.51
Expected goals
0-1
5.2%
1-2
7.3%
2-3
3.4%
3-4
0.8%
4-5
0.1%
5-6
0%
-1
16.9%
0-2
3.9%
1-3
3.7%
2-4
1.3%
3-5
0.2%
4-6
0%
-2
9.2%
0-3
2%
1-4
1.4%
2-5
0.4%
3-6
0.1%
-3
3.8%
0-4
0.7%
1-5
0.4%
2-6
0.1%
3-7
0%
-4
1.3%
0-5
0.2%
1-6
0.1%
2-7
0%
-5
0.4%
0-6
0.1%
1-7
0%
-6
0.1%
0-7
0%
-7
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+18%
-6%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 May. 1966 |
PEÑ
4 - 2
RIV
66%
18%
16%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 May. 1966 |
RIV
3 - 2
PEÑ
69%
17%
14%
|
82 | 84 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
RIV
65%
18%
17%
|
81 | 84 | 3 | +1 |
| 23 Apr. 1966 |
NAC
0 - 1
PEÑ
68%
17%
15%
|
81 | 80 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 Apr. 1966 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
UCO
66%
18%
16%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | 0 |
Matches
Real Madrid
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Oct. 1966 |
RMA
3 - 1
ZAR
68%
19%
14%
|
92 | 89 | 3 | 0 |
| 02 Oct. 1966 |
GRA
1 - 1
RMA
16%
25%
59%
|
92 | 64 | 28 | 0 |
| 25 Sep. 1966 |
RMA
1 - 1
ESP
85%
11%
5%
|
92 | 76 | 16 | 0 |
| 18 Sep. 1966 |
PON
0 - 1
RMA
17%
23%
60%
|
92 | 76 | 16 | 0 |
| 11 Sep. 1966 |
RMA
4 - 1
ELC
80%
13%
7%
|
92 | 82 | 10 | 0 |