Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
47.2%
Win probability
1.63
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.6%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.8%
4-0
1.7%
5-1
0.7%
6-2
0.1%
7-3
<0%
+4
2.5%
3-0
4.2%
4-1
2.1%
5-2
0.4%
6-3
<0%
+3
6.7%
2-0
7.8%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
1.2%
5-3
0.2%
6-4
<0%
+2
14.3%
1-0
9.6%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
3.1%
4-3
0.5%
5-4
<0%
+1
22.6%
24.5%
Draw
0-0
5.9%
1-1
11.6%
2-2
5.6%
3-3
1.2%
4-4
0.1%
5-5
<0%
0
24.5%
28.3%
Win probability
1.2
Expected goals
0-1
7.1%
1-2
7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.4%
4-5
0%
-1
16.7%
0-2
4.3%
1-3
2.8%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
-2
7.8%
0-3
1.7%
1-4
0.8%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
2.7%
0-4
0.5%
1-5
0.2%
2-6
0%
-4
0.8%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.2%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+32%
+23%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 May. 2015 |
JUN
0 - 2
PEÑ
25%
26%
49%
|
79 | 64 | 15 | 0 |
| 25 Apr. 2015 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
MWA
58%
23%
19%
|
78 | 74 | 4 | +1 |
| 19 Apr. 2015 |
ATE
1 - 1
PEÑ
28%
26%
47%
|
78 | 68 | 10 | 0 |
| 11 Apr. 2015 |
PEÑ
2 - 3
DAN
64%
21%
15%
|
79 | 70 | 9 | -1 |
| 05 Apr. 2015 |
RIV
1 - 2
PEÑ
49%
24%
27%
|
78 | 77 | 1 | +1 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02 May. 2015 |
NAC
1 - 0
FEN
71%
18%
11%
|
79 | 67 | 12 | 0 |
| 26 Apr. 2015 |
REN
2 - 4
NAC
25%
26%
50%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 18 Apr. 2015 |
RAC
2 - 4
NAC
30%
26%
44%
|
79 | 68 | 11 | 0 |
| 12 Apr. 2015 |
NAC
3 - 1
JUN
72%
18%
10%
|
78 | 64 | 14 | +1 |
| 04 Apr. 2015 |
MWA
2 - 0
NAC
42%
25%
33%
|
79 | 74 | 5 | -1 |