Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
53.6%
Win probability
1.6
Expected goals
7-0
<0%
+7
<0%
6-0
0.2%
7-1
<0%
+6
0.2%
5-0
0.7%
6-1
0.2%
7-2
<0%
+5
0.9%
4-0
2.2%
5-1
0.6%
6-2
0.1%
+4
2.9%
3-0
5.5%
4-1
2%
5-2
0.3%
6-3
<0%
+3
7.9%
2-0
10.4%
3-1
5.1%
4-2
0.9%
5-3
0.1%
+2
16.5%
1-0
13%
2-1
9.5%
3-2
2.3%
4-3
0.3%
5-4
<0%
+1
25%
25%
Draw
0-0
8.1%
1-1
11.8%
2-2
4.3%
3-3
0.7%
4-4
0.1%
0
25%
21.4%
Win probability
0.91
Expected goals
0-1
7.4%
1-2
5.4%
2-3
1.3%
3-4
0.2%
4-5
0%
-1
14.3%
0-2
3.4%
1-3
1.6%
2-4
0.3%
3-5
0%
-2
5.3%
0-3
1%
1-4
0.4%
2-5
0.1%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
-4
0.3%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+27%
+28%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 Jul. 1978 |
PEÑ
1 - 0
JUN
70%
17%
13%
|
80 | 73 | 7 | 0 |
| 18 Jul. 1978 |
PEÑ
0 - 2
CAL
65%
20%
15%
|
81 | 76 | 5 | -1 |
| 07 Jun. 1978 |
DAN
1 - 2
PEÑ
37%
27%
36%
|
81 | 72 | 9 | 0 |
| 17 May. 1978 |
JUN
1 - 0
PEÑ
36%
27%
37%
|
81 | 73 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 May. 1978 |
CAL
1 - 0
PEÑ
53%
24%
23%
|
81 | 75 | 6 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Apr. 1976 |
NAC
1 - 1
PAL
73%
15%
12%
|
82 | 72 | 10 | 0 |
| 31 Mar. 1976 |
NAC
1 - 1
UNI
69%
19%
12%
|
82 | 75 | 7 | 0 |
| 24 Mar. 1976 |
NAC
1 - 2
PEÑ
61%
23%
16%
|
82 | 82 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 Mar. 1976 |
UNI
2 - 0
NAC
42%
26%
32%
|
82 | 74 | 8 | 0 |
| 14 Mar. 1976 |
PAL
2 - 1
NAC
40%
26%
34%
|
83 | 71 | 12 | -1 |