Copa Libertadores Semi-finals
Global 5-4
Peñarol vs Nacional analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
64.3%
Win probability
2.44
Expected goals
9-0
<0%
+9
<0%
8-0
0.1%
9-1
<0%
+8
0.1%
7-0
0.3%
8-1
0.1%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.4%
6-0
0.8%
7-1
0.3%
8-2
0.1%
+6
1.1%
5-0
1.9%
6-1
0.9%
7-2
0.2%
8-3
<0%
+5
3%
4-0
3.8%
5-1
2.3%
6-2
0.6%
7-3
0.1%
+4
6.7%
3-0
6.3%
4-1
4.6%
5-2
1.4%
6-3
0.2%
7-4
<0%
+3
12.5%
2-0
7.7%
3-1
7.6%
4-2
2.8%
5-3
0.6%
6-4
0.1%
+2
18.8%
1-0
6.3%
2-1
9.4%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.1%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
21.6%
18.2%
Draw
0-0
2.6%
1-1
7.7%
2-2
5.7%
3-3
1.9%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
18.2%
17.5%
Win probability
1.21
Expected goals
0-1
3.1%
1-2
4.7%
2-3
2.3%
3-4
0.6%
4-5
0.1%
-1
10.8%
0-2
1.9%
1-3
1.9%
2-4
0.7%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
4.6%
0-3
0.8%
1-4
0.6%
2-5
0.2%
3-6
0%
-3
1.5%
0-4
0.2%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-6
0%
-5
0.1%
0-6
0%
-6
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+22%
+17%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 1962 |
NAC
2 - 1
PEÑ
56%
21%
23%
|
81 | 77 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 Sep. 1961 |
PEÑ
2 - 1
SLB
57%
20%
23%
|
80 | 87 | 7 | +1 |
| 17 Sep. 1961 |
PEÑ
5 - 0
SLB
54%
20%
26%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | +1 |
| 04 Sep. 1961 |
SLB
1 - 0
PEÑ
87%
8%
5%
|
79 | 88 | 9 | 0 |
| 11 Jun. 1961 |
PAL
1 - 1
PEÑ
70%
16%
14%
|
79 | 79 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Nacional
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Jul. 1962 |
NAC
2 - 1
PEÑ
56%
21%
23%
|
77 | 81 | 4 | 0 |
| 27 Feb. 1962 |
RAC
2 - 2
NAC
82%
11%
7%
|
77 | 83 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 Feb. 1962 |
NAC
3 - 2
RAC
61%
19%
20%
|
77 | 84 | 7 | 0 |
| 17 Feb. 1962 |
SPC
0 - 1
NAC
56%
21%
24%
|
76 | 73 | 3 | +1 |
| 10 Feb. 1962 |
NAC
3 - 2
SPC
63%
19%
18%
|
76 | 74 | 2 | 0 |