Peñarol vs Guaraní analysis
Possible results
Probability of each exact result
Probability of each margin of victory
73.4%
Win probability
2.87
Expected goals
10-0
<0%
+10
<0%
9-0
0.1%
10-1
<0%
+9
0.1%
8-0
0.2%
9-1
0.1%
10-2
<0%
+8
0.3%
7-0
0.6%
8-1
0.2%
9-2
<0%
+7
0.9%
6-0
1.4%
7-1
0.7%
8-2
0.1%
9-3
<0%
+6
2.2%
5-0
3%
6-1
1.6%
7-2
0.4%
8-3
<0%
+5
5%
4-0
5.2%
5-1
3.4%
6-2
0.9%
7-3
0.1%
8-4
<0%
+4
9.6%
3-0
7.3%
4-1
5.9%
5-2
1.9%
6-3
0.3%
7-4
<0%
+3
15.4%
2-0
7.6%
3-1
8.2%
4-2
3.3%
5-3
0.7%
6-4
0.1%
+2
19.9%
1-0
5.3%
2-1
8.5%
3-2
4.6%
4-3
1.2%
5-4
0.2%
6-5
<0%
+1
19.9%
14.7%
Draw
0-0
1.9%
1-1
6%
2-2
4.8%
3-3
1.7%
4-4
0.3%
5-5
<0%
0
14.7%
11.9%
Win probability
1.12
Expected goals
0-1
2.1%
1-2
3.3%
2-3
1.8%
3-4
0.5%
4-5
0.1%
-1
7.7%
0-2
1.2%
1-3
1.2%
2-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-6
0%
-2
3%
0-3
0.4%
1-4
0.3%
2-5
0.1%
3-6
0%
-3
0.9%
0-4
0.1%
1-5
0.1%
2-6
0%
-4
0.2%
0-5
0%
1-6
0%
-5
<0%
ELO Graph/Inclination
← Defensive
Tilt
Attacking →
+24%
-5%
ELO progression
Next opponents in ELO points
Matches
Peñarol
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1965 |
GUA
2 - 1
PEÑ
64%
18%
18%
|
79 | 75 | 4 | 0 |
| 28 Feb. 1965 |
PEÑ
2 - 0
GAL
75%
15%
10%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 07 Feb. 1965 |
GAL
0 - 0
PEÑ
41%
24%
36%
|
79 | 66 | 13 | 0 |
| 15 Aug. 1963 |
BOC
1 - 0
PEÑ
57%
21%
22%
|
80 | 81 | 1 | -1 |
| 07 Aug. 1963 |
PEÑ
1 - 2
BOC
64%
19%
17%
|
80 | 80 | 0 | 0 |
Matches
Guaraní
|
1%
X%
2%
|
ELO | ELO Cont. | ▵ELO | ±ELO | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Mar. 1965 |
GUA
2 - 1
PEÑ
64%
18%
18%
|
75 | 79 | 4 | 0 |
| 25 Feb. 1965 |
GUA
2 - 1
GAL
64%
17%
18%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | +1 |
| 01 Feb. 1965 |
GAL
1 - 2
GUA
44%
21%
35%
|
74 | 66 | 8 | 0 |